About MATES
MATES (Multi-Agent Trading Execution System) is an autonomous trading bot that finds and exploits mispricings on Kalshi (a regulated U.S. prediction market exchange) by comparing DataGolf's statistical probability model against Kalshi's crowd-derived prices across 1,600+ PGA Tour markets. When the two signals diverge by more than our edge threshold, MATES sizes a position using the Kelly Criterion and places a limit order automatically. See Technical Design for full architecture details.
Kalshi API
DataGolf strokes-gained model
Kelly Criterion (half-Kelly)
RSA-PSS signed auth
Fuzzy name matching
Python + Flask
Portfolio Summary
Total Budget
$100.00
Deployed
$37.56
Available
$62.44
Open Positions
8
Tournament Positions
Filter:
click a column header to sort · filters apply to both views
| Market | Type | Side | Qty | Entry | AT ENTRY | CURRENT (LIVE MARKET) | POSITION | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds Win | DG % | Kalshi % | Edge | Exp. Val | Win Odds | Kalshi % | Edge @ Entry | Proj. Return | Cost | Potential Payout | Opened | |||||
| Loading positions… | ||||||||||||||||
Tournament Performance
Cumulative P&L · realized, by settled bet
| Event | Status | Bets | Record | Staked | Net P&L | ROI | Avg Edge @Entry | Expected P&L | vs Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Open | LIVE | 12 (4 settled) | 4–0 100% | $69.81 | +$6.75 * | +9.7% | +3.9 | — | — |
| RBC Canadian Open | SETTLED | 8 | 4–4 50% | $25.74 | $-4.74 | -18.4% | +5.1 | — | — |
| CJ Cup Byron Nelson | SETTLED | 16 | 9–7 56% | $68.80 | $-4.80 | -7.0% | — | — | — |
| All-time | 36 | 17–11 | $164.35 | $-2.79 | -1.7% | ||||
* Live events include unrealized mark-to-market on open positions.
Expected P&L and vs Expected are shown only where DataGolf entry data covers every bet in the event
(so the older synced Byron Nelson book shows “—”). Small sample — three tournaments, two with early bugs.
Settled Positions
Filter:
click a column header to sort
| Event | Market | Type | Side | Qty | Entry | Cost | Payout | P&L | Outcome | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No settled positions yet. | ||||||||||
Market Scan — Kalshi & DataGolf
6/20 9:32 PM PT · Live predictions
Scanned 368 markets across 72 top5, 72 top10, 72 top20, 72 winner, 80 matchup. Found 11 edges above threshold (8 top5, 1 top10, 2 top20) — 10 meet minimum position size and are tradeable.
Top pick: Robert MacIntyre - Top 5 (TOP5, NO @ 84¢) with a 15.9pt edge — DataGolf says 0.1%, Kalshi implies 16.0%.
| Market | Type | Side | Edge | DG % | Kalshi % | Price | Contracts | POSITION ECONOMICS | Tradeable | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost | Odds of Win | Payout | Exp. Value | |||||||||
| Robert MacIntyre - Top 5 | TOP5 | NO | 15.9pt | 0.1% | 16.0% | 84¢ | 29 | $24.36 | 99.9% | $4.64 | +$4.60 | YES |
| Harry Higgs - Top 5 | TOP5 | NO | 14.9pt | 0.1% | 15.0% | 85¢ | 29 | $24.65 | 99.9% | $4.35 | +$4.33 | YES |
| Ludvig Aberg - Top 5 | TOP5 | NO | 11.6pt | 0.4% | 12.0% | 88¢ | 28 | $24.64 | 99.6% | $3.36 | +$3.25 | YES |
| Ryan Fox - Top 5 | TOP5 | NO | 10.9pt | 0.1% | 11.0% | 89¢ | 28 | $24.92 | 99.9% | $3.08 | +$3.05 | YES |
| Andrew Putnam - Top 5 | TOP5 | NO | 10.8pt | 0.2% | 11.0% | 89¢ | 28 | $24.92 | 99.8% | $3.08 | +$3.03 | YES |
| Chris Gotterup - Top 5 | TOP5 | NO | 10.8pt | 0.2% | 11.0% | 89¢ | 28 | $24.92 | 99.8% | $3.08 | +$3.01 | YES |
| Cameron Young - Top 5 | TOP5 | NO | 8.4pt | 2.6% | 11.0% | 97¢ | 0 | $5.82 | 97.4% | $0.18 | +$0.50 | NO |
| Hideki Matsuyama - Top 20 | TOP20 | NO | 6.9pt | 0.1% | 7.0% | 93¢ | 26 | $24.18 | 99.9% | $1.82 | +$1.79 | YES |
| Scottie Scheffler - Top 5 | TOP5 | NO | 6.0pt | 67.0% | 73.0% | 29¢ | 6 | $2.61 | 33.0% | $6.39 | +$0.54 | YES |
| Scottie Scheffler - Top 10 | TOP10 | NO | 5.0pt | 85.0% | 90.0% | 12¢ | 9 | $1.68 | 15.0% | $12.32 | +$0.69 | YES |
All Markets Found — 368 markets, sorted by volume (click to expand)
| Ticker | Title | Category | Volume ($) | YES Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-WCLA | Will Wyndham Clark win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $14,634,095 | 72¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-SSCH | Will Scottie Scheffler win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $14,298,351 | 13¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-RMCI | Will Rory McIlroy win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $10,297,634 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-MFIT | Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $7,136,540 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-CAME | Will Cameron Young win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $5,700,456 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-TFLE | Will Tommy Fleetwood win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $5,650,699 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-XSCH | Will Xander Schauffele win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $5,644,030 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-SBUR | Will Sam Burns win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $5,451,383 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-SSTE | Will Sam Stevens win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $4,738,382 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-CGOT | Will Chris Gotterup win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $4,406,841 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-JTHO | Will Justin Thomas win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $4,191,214 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-DJOH | Will Dustin Johnson win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $4,075,100 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-CMOR | Will Collin Morikawa win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $3,950,969 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-LABE | Will Ludvig Aberg win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $3,841,463 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-JNIE | Will Joaquin Niemann win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $3,707,709 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-HHIG | Will Harry Higgs win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $3,635,236 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-JROS | Will Justin Rose win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $3,420,767 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-CCON | Will Corey Conners win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $3,385,067 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-BHAR | Will Brian Harman win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $3,292,998 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-TKIM | Will Tom Kim win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $3,260,989 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-JSPI | Will Jordan Spieth win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $3,122,384 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-ABHA | Will Akshay Bhatia win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,968,728 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-STHE | Will Sahith Theegala win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,862,080 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-THAT | Will Tyrrell Hatton win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,823,355 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-ARAI | Will Aaron Rai win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,821,918 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-JBRI | Will Jacob Bridgeman win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,792,152 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-RCOW | Will Ryder Cowan win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,592,929 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-RHEN | Will Russell Henley win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,587,840 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-GWOO | Will Gary Woodland win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,463,180 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-AFIT | Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,309,385 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-JKOI | Will Jackson Koivun win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,108,941 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-HMAT | Will Hideki Matsuyama win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,096,098 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-MMCN | Will Maverick McNealy win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $2,040,282 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-KBRA | Will Keegan Bradley win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,883,891 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-KKIT | Will Kurt Kitayama win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,815,184 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-MRUS | Will Miles Russell win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,723,978 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-RMAC | Will Robert MacIntyre win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,652,093 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-BGRI | Will Ben Griffin win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,640,094 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-KMIT | Will Keith Mitchell win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,639,309 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-MGRE | Will Max Greyserman win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,622,097 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-BKOH | Will Ben Kohles win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,360,249 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-SIM | Will Sungjae Im win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,294,606 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-JPOS | Will J.T. Poston win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,285,528 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-ADUM | Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,259,038 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-JVAN | Will Jackson Van Paris win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,248,529 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-BJAM | Will Benjamin James win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,199,910 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-EGRI | Will Emiliano Grillo win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,178,947 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-RHIS | Will Ryo Hisatsune win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,123,743 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-JNIC | Will James Nicholas win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,078,237 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-MKIM | Will Michael Kim win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,060,135 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-RFOX | Will Ryan Fox win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,055,224 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-AHID | Will Angel Hidalgo win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $1,009,646 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-WMOU | Will William Mouw win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $917,020 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-MMCG | Will Max McGreevy win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $878,740 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-APUT | Will Andrew Putnam win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $712,573 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-MBRE | Will Michael Brennan win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $700,605 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-JKEE | Will John Keefer win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $698,193 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-NNOR | Will Niklas Norgaard Moller win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $689,762 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-NECH | Will Nicolas Echavarria win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $661,159 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-PCOO | Will Pierceson Coody win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $647,594 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-STIB | Will Spencer Tibbits win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $636,268 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-BCAU | Will Bud Cauley win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $571,700 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-JPAR | Will John Parry win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $528,040 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-PROD | Will Patrick Rodgers win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $524,888 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-NSHI | Will Neal Shipley win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $382,991 | — |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-CSUR | Will Caleb Surratt win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $358,391 | — |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-XSCH | U.S. Open: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 20? | TOP20 | $348,679 | 91¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-LCAN | Will Laurie Canter win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $324,728 | — |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-SSCH | U.S. Open: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5? | TOP5 | $218,906 | 73¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-ZBLA | Will Zac Blair win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $205,683 | — |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-SSCH | U.S. Open: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10? | TOP10 | $194,974 | 90¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-SSCH | U.S. Open: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20? | TOP20 | $149,581 | 98¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-RMCI | U.S. Open: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20? | TOP20 | $128,755 | 65¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-RMCI | U.S. Open: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5? | TOP5 | $118,758 | 15¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-RMCI | U.S. Open: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10? | TOP10 | $117,319 | 34¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-WCLA | U.S. Open: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 10? | TOP10 | $98,797 | 99¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-WCLA | U.S. Open: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 5? | TOP5 | $84,221 | 97¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-MFIT | U.S. Open: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5? | TOP5 | $84,075 | 28¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-TFLE | U.S. Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 20? | TOP20 | $83,366 | 81¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-XSCH | U.S. Open: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5? | TOP5 | $81,552 | 45¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-PUIH | Will Peter Uihlein win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $80,577 | — |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-CGOT | U.S. Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20? | TOP20 | $71,590 | 10¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-JROS | U.S. Open: Will Justin Rose finish top 20? | TOP20 | $71,150 | 39¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-XSCH | U.S. Open: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10? | TOP10 | $65,852 | 71¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-MFIT | U.S. Open: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20? | TOP20 | $65,749 | 83¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-MFIT | U.S. Open: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10? | TOP10 | $64,826 | 54¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-CAME | U.S. Open: Will Cameron Young finish top 20? | TOP20 | $63,714 | 34¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-TFLE | U.S. Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10? | TOP10 | $63,688 | 58¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-CGOT | U.S. Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10? | TOP10 | $62,646 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-WCLA | U.S. Open: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 20? | TOP20 | $62,520 | — |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-SBUR | U.S. Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 20? | TOP20 | $61,398 | 88¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-LABE | U.S. Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20? | TOP20 | $58,382 | 13¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-TFLE | U.S. Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5? | TOP5 | $58,192 | 31¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-JNIE | U.S. Open: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 20? | TOP20 | $57,680 | 23¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-BKOH | U.S. Open: Will Ben Kohles finish top 20? | TOP20 | $57,287 | 16¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-THAT | U.S. Open: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 20? | TOP20 | $56,573 | 40¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-RHEN | U.S. Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 20? | TOP20 | $54,984 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-ABHA | U.S. Open: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 20? | TOP20 | $51,081 | 47¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-ELEE | Will Eric Lee win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $48,444 | — |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-STHE | U.S. Open: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 20? | TOP20 | $47,243 | 88¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-SBUR | U.S. Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 10? | TOP10 | $45,606 | 66¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-JNIE | U.S. Open: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 10? | TOP10 | $44,435 | 6¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-DWU | Will Dylan Wu win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $44,048 | — |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-CMOR | U.S. Open: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10? | TOP10 | $41,270 | 51¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-ARAI | U.S. Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 20? | TOP20 | $39,164 | 49¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-CMOR | U.S. Open: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20? | TOP20 | $38,540 | 80¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-DJOH | U.S. Open: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 20? | TOP20 | $37,961 | 33¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-THAT | U.S. Open: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 10? | TOP10 | $37,656 | 12¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-RHEN | U.S. Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 10? | TOP10 | $36,787 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-CAME | U.S. Open: Will Cameron Young finish top 10? | TOP10 | $36,352 | 11¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-JROS | U.S. Open: Will Justin Rose finish top 10? | TOP10 | $36,306 | 14¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26SSCHRMCI-RMCI | Will Rory McIlroy beat Scottie Scheffler in the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $35,049 | 22¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-TKIM | U.S. Open: Will Tom Kim finish top 20? | TOP20 | $34,650 | 88¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-LABE | U.S. Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5? | TOP5 | $31,070 | 12¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-ARAI | U.S. Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 10? | TOP10 | $30,962 | 17¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-CAME | U.S. Open: Will Cameron Young finish top 5? | TOP5 | $30,954 | 11¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-LABE | U.S. Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10? | TOP10 | $30,885 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-GWOO | U.S. Open: Will Gary Woodland finish top 10? | TOP10 | $30,141 | 17¢ |
| KXPGATOUR-USO26-MFLE | Will Marek Fleming win the U.S. Open? | WINNER | $29,856 | — |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-SBUR | U.S. Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 5? | TOP5 | $29,292 | 38¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-MRUS | U.S. Open: Will Miles Russell finish top 20? | TOP20 | $28,388 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-CMOR | U.S. Open: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 5? | TOP5 | $28,376 | 25¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-GWOO | U.S. Open: Will Gary Woodland finish top 20? | TOP20 | $28,168 | 44¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26SSCHRMCI-SSCH | Will Scottie Scheffler beat Rory McIlroy in the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $25,842 | 94¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-RHEN | U.S. Open: Will Russell Henley finish top 5? | TOP5 | $25,621 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-TKIM | U.S. Open: Will Tom Kim finish top 10? | TOP10 | $25,500 | 67¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-JTHO | U.S. Open: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20? | TOP20 | $25,188 | 43¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-CGOT | U.S. Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 5? | TOP5 | $25,029 | 11¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-JSPI | U.S. Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20? | TOP20 | $24,927 | 17¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-AFIT | U.S. Open: Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish top 10? | TOP10 | $24,326 | 33¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-KKIT | U.S. Open: Will Kurt Kitayama finish top 10? | TOP10 | $24,107 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-RFOX | U.S. Open: Will Ryan Fox finish top 10? | TOP10 | $23,603 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-RMAC | U.S. Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 20? | TOP20 | $23,228 | 10¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-BJAM | U.S. Open: Will Benjamin James finish top 20? | TOP20 | $22,875 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-MKIM | U.S. Open: Will Michael Kim finish top 20? | TOP20 | $22,001 | 43¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-AFIT | U.S. Open: Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish top 20? | TOP20 | $21,620 | 63¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-THAT | U.S. Open: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 5? | TOP5 | $21,217 | 4¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-RCOW | U.S. Open: Will Ryder Cowan finish top 5? | TOP5 | $21,147 | 7¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-JTHO | U.S. Open: Will Justin Thomas finish top 5? | TOP5 | $21,056 | 5¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-ABHA | U.S. Open: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10? | TOP10 | $20,673 | 18¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-JKOI | U.S. Open: Will Jackson Koivun finish top 20? | TOP20 | $19,493 | 8¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-TKIM | U.S. Open: Will Tom Kim finish top 5? | TOP5 | $18,889 | 41¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-KKIT | U.S. Open: Will Kurt Kitayama finish top 5? | TOP5 | $17,709 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-JTHO | U.S. Open: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10? | TOP10 | $17,692 | 15¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-JROS | U.S. Open: Will Justin Rose finish top 5? | TOP5 | $17,536 | 7¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-KBRA | U.S. Open: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 5? | TOP5 | $17,405 | 12¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-JSPI | U.S. Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10? | TOP10 | $16,847 | 4¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-BCAU | U.S. Open: Will Bud Cauley finish top 10? | TOP10 | $15,650 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-KBRA | U.S. Open: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 20? | TOP20 | $15,582 | 63¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-APUT | U.S. Open: Will Andrew Putnam finish top 20? | TOP20 | $15,400 | 9¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-CCON | U.S. Open: Will Corey Conners finish top 20? | TOP20 | $15,263 | 59¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-BHAR | U.S. Open: Will Brian Harman finish top 20? | TOP20 | $15,228 | 45¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-MRUS | U.S. Open: Will Miles Russell finish top 10? | TOP10 | $14,855 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-BHAR | U.S. Open: Will Brian Harman finish top 10? | TOP10 | $14,702 | 16¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-DJOH | U.S. Open: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 10? | TOP10 | $13,898 | 10¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-RFOX | U.S. Open: Will Ryan Fox finish top 20? | TOP20 | $13,889 | 7¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-MBRE | U.S. Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 20? | TOP20 | $13,765 | 11¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-MKIM | U.S. Open: Will Michael Kim finish top 10? | TOP10 | $13,558 | 15¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-RMAC | U.S. Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10? | TOP10 | $13,406 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-GWOO | U.S. Open: Will Gary Woodland finish top 5? | TOP5 | $12,650 | 6¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-JKOI | U.S. Open: Will Jackson Koivun finish top 10? | TOP10 | $12,442 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-JNIE | U.S. Open: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5? | TOP5 | $12,417 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-MMCN | U.S. Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 20? | TOP20 | $12,379 | 52¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-KKIT | U.S. Open: Will Kurt Kitayama finish top 20? | TOP20 | $12,273 | 6¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-MBRE | U.S. Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 5? | TOP5 | $12,022 | 1¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26JROSTHAT-THAT | Will Tyrrell Hatton beat Justin Rose in the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $12,009 | 63¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-SSTE | U.S. Open: Will Sam Stevens finish top 20? | TOP20 | $11,885 | 87¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26MRUSJKOI-JKOI | Will Jackson Koivun beat Miles Russell in the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $11,677 | 90¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-NECH | U.S. Open: Will Nicolas Echavarria finish top 20? | TOP20 | $11,613 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-HHIG | U.S. Open: Will Harry Higgs finish top 20? | TOP20 | $11,502 | 9¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-HMAT | U.S. Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20? | TOP20 | $11,498 | 7¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-JBRI | U.S. Open: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 20? | TOP20 | $11,348 | 5¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-BKOH | U.S. Open: Will Ben Kohles finish top 10? | TOP10 | $11,238 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-STHE | U.S. Open: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 5? | TOP5 | $11,136 | 41¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-RMAC | U.S. Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 5? | TOP5 | $10,817 | 16¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-AHID | U.S. Open: Will Angel Hidalgo finish top 20? | TOP20 | $10,099 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-WMOU | U.S. Open: Will William Mouw finish top 20? | TOP20 | $9,990 | 28¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-MMCG | U.S. Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 20? | TOP20 | $9,712 | 28¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-RCOW | U.S. Open: Will Ryder Cowan finish top 20? | TOP20 | $9,674 | 40¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-SIM | U.S. Open: Will Sungjae Im finish top 20? | TOP20 | $9,287 | 41¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26JSPIJTHO-JTHO | Will Justin Thomas beat Jordan Spieth in the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $9,256 | 91¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-SSTE | U.S. Open: Will Sam Stevens finish top 10? | TOP10 | $9,232 | 63¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-PUIH | U.S. Open: Will Peter Uihlein finish top 20? | TOP20 | $9,180 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-STHE | U.S. Open: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 10? | TOP10 | $9,083 | 66¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-RFOX | U.S. Open: Will Ryan Fox finish top 5? | TOP5 | $8,941 | 11¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-HHIG | U.S. Open: Will Harry Higgs finish top 5? | TOP5 | $8,738 | 15¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-STIB | U.S. Open: Will Spencer Tibbits finish top 20? | TOP20 | $8,528 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-AFIT | U.S. Open: Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish top 5? | TOP5 | $8,365 | 12¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-HHIG | U.S. Open: Will Harry Higgs finish top 10? | TOP10 | $8,247 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-CSUR | U.S. Open: Will Caleb Surratt finish top 20? | TOP20 | $8,245 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-RHIS | U.S. Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 10? | TOP10 | $8,134 | 14¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-BHAR | U.S. Open: Will Brian Harman finish top 5? | TOP5 | $8,118 | 5¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-JNIC | U.S. Open: Will James Nicholas finish top 20? | TOP20 | $7,852 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-BGRI | U.S. Open: Will Ben Griffin finish top 10? | TOP10 | $7,767 | 12¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-MMCN | U.S. Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 10? | TOP10 | $7,692 | 22¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26JROSTHAT-JROS | Will Justin Rose beat Tyrrell Hatton in the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $7,483 | 86¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-SIM | U.S. Open: Will Sungjae Im finish top 10? | TOP10 | $7,483 | 15¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-SSTE | U.S. Open: Will Sam Stevens finish top 5? | TOP5 | $7,377 | 36¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-MBRE | U.S. Open: Will Michael Brennan finish top 10? | TOP10 | $7,238 | 2¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26JSPIJTHO-JSPI | Will Jordan Spieth beat Justin Thomas in the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $7,055 | 45¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-APUT | U.S. Open: Will Andrew Putnam finish top 5? | TOP5 | $7,054 | 11¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-BCAU | U.S. Open: Will Bud Cauley finish top 20? | TOP20 | $6,962 | 14¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-ARAI | U.S. Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 5? | TOP5 | $6,755 | 5¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-JSPI | U.S. Open: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5? | TOP5 | $6,681 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-JBRI | U.S. Open: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 10? | TOP10 | $6,657 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-ABHA | U.S. Open: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 5? | TOP5 | $6,358 | 5¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-EGRI | U.S. Open: Will Emiliano Grillo finish top 10? | TOP10 | $6,088 | 46¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-DJOH | U.S. Open: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 5? | TOP5 | $6,027 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-BGRI | U.S. Open: Will Ben Griffin finish top 20? | TOP20 | $5,998 | 41¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-MMCG | U.S. Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 5? | TOP5 | $5,875 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-MMCG | U.S. Open: Will Max McGreevy finish top 10? | TOP10 | $5,761 | 7¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-HMAT | U.S. Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10? | TOP10 | $5,261 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-KMIT | U.S. Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 20? | TOP20 | $5,194 | 81¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-HMAT | U.S. Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 5? | TOP5 | $5,122 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-MKIM | U.S. Open: Will Michael Kim finish top 5? | TOP5 | $4,873 | 5¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-PROD | U.S. Open: Will Patrick Rodgers finish top 10? | TOP10 | $4,842 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-MMCN | U.S. Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 5? | TOP5 | $4,833 | 7¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-NECH | U.S. Open: Will Nicolas Echavarria finish top 10? | TOP10 | $4,826 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-JKOI | U.S. Open: Will Jackson Koivun finish top 5? | TOP5 | $4,808 | 11¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-JKEE | U.S. Open: Will John Keefer finish top 10? | TOP10 | $4,717 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-BJAM | U.S. Open: Will Benjamin James finish top 10? | TOP10 | $4,716 | 4¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-MGRE | U.S. Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 20? | TOP20 | $4,534 | 4¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-CCON | U.S. Open: Will Corey Conners finish top 10? | TOP10 | $4,461 | 26¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-RHIS | U.S. Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20? | TOP20 | $4,438 | 42¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26MRUSJKOI-MRUS | Will Miles Russell beat Jackson Koivun in the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $4,437 | 49¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-EGRI | U.S. Open: Will Emiliano Grillo finish top 20? | TOP20 | $4,391 | 77¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-JKEE | U.S. Open: Will John Keefer finish top 20? | TOP20 | $4,234 | 6¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-RCOW | U.S. Open: Will Ryder Cowan finish top 10? | TOP10 | $4,205 | 13¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-PROD | U.S. Open: Will Patrick Rodgers finish top 20? | TOP20 | $4,167 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-MRUS | U.S. Open: Will Miles Russell finish top 5? | TOP5 | $4,118 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-JBRI | U.S. Open: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 5? | TOP5 | $4,080 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-APUT | U.S. Open: Will Andrew Putnam finish top 10? | TOP10 | $4,037 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-NSHI | U.S. Open: Will Neal Shipley finish top 20? | TOP20 | $3,935 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-ZBLA | U.S. Open: Will Zac Blair finish top 20? | TOP20 | $3,904 | 33¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-JPOS | U.S. Open: Will J.T. Poston finish top 20? | TOP20 | $3,810 | 48¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-CSUR | U.S. Open: Will Caleb Surratt finish top 10? | TOP10 | $3,535 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-KMIT | U.S. Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 10? | TOP10 | $3,524 | 55¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-ELEE | U.S. Open: Will Eric Lee finish top 20? | TOP20 | $3,505 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-PCOO | U.S. Open: Will Pierceson Coody finish top 20? | TOP20 | $3,457 | 28¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-JPAR | U.S. Open: Will John Parry finish top 20? | TOP20 | $3,419 | 35¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-KMIT | U.S. Open: Will Keith Mitchell finish top 5? | TOP5 | $3,174 | 29¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-BKOH | U.S. Open: Will Ben Kohles finish top 5? | TOP5 | $3,032 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-KBRA | U.S. Open: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 10? | TOP10 | $2,905 | 31¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-BGRI | U.S. Open: Will Ben Griffin finish top 5? | TOP5 | $2,858 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-NNOR | U.S. Open: Will Niklas Norgaard Moller finish top 20? | TOP20 | $2,821 | 20¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-ZBLA | U.S. Open: Will Zac Blair finish top 10? | TOP10 | $2,791 | 9¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-PUIH | U.S. Open: Will Peter Uihlein finish top 10? | TOP10 | $2,382 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-RHIS | U.S. Open: Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 5? | TOP5 | $2,347 | 6¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-PROD | U.S. Open: Will Patrick Rodgers finish top 5? | TOP5 | $2,340 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-MGRE | U.S. Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 10? | TOP10 | $2,265 | 4¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-JPOS | U.S. Open: Will J.T. Poston finish top 10? | TOP10 | $2,059 | 17¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-JNIC | U.S. Open: Will James Nicholas finish top 10? | TOP10 | $1,895 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-SIM | U.S. Open: Will Sungjae Im finish top 5? | TOP5 | $1,872 | 4¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-JNIC | U.S. Open: Will James Nicholas finish top 5? | TOP5 | $1,793 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-CCON | U.S. Open: Will Corey Conners finish top 5? | TOP5 | $1,788 | 11¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-DWU | U.S. Open: Will Dylan Wu finish top 20? | TOP20 | $1,776 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-JVAN | U.S. Open: Will Jackson Van Paris finish top 20? | TOP20 | $1,703 | 1¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4RHENPUIH-PUIH | Will Peter Uihlein beat Russell Henley in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $1,682 | 25¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-EGRI | U.S. Open: Will Emiliano Grillo finish top 5? | TOP5 | $1,395 | 22¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4SSCHWCLA-WCLA | Will Wyndham Clark beat Scottie Scheffler in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $1,366 | 29¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-NSHI | U.S. Open: Will Neal Shipley finish top 5? | TOP5 | $1,364 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-LCAN | U.S. Open: Will Laurie Canter finish top 20? | TOP20 | $1,266 | 14¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-ADUM | U.S. Open: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 20? | TOP20 | $1,146 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-MGRE | U.S. Open: Will Max Greyserman finish top 5? | TOP5 | $1,072 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-JKEE | U.S. Open: Will John Keefer finish top 5? | TOP5 | $987 | 1¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4SSCHWCLA-SSCH | Will Scottie Scheffler beat Wyndham Clark in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $798 | 72¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-AHID | U.S. Open: Will Angel Hidalgo finish top 10? | TOP10 | $774 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-JPOS | U.S. Open: Will J.T. Poston finish top 5? | TOP5 | $709 | 5¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-STIB | U.S. Open: Will Spencer Tibbits finish top 10? | TOP10 | $707 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-NNOR | U.S. Open: Will Niklas Norgaard Moller finish top 10? | TOP10 | $591 | 5¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-ZBLA | U.S. Open: Will Zac Blair finish top 5? | TOP5 | $585 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-BCAU | U.S. Open: Will Bud Cauley finish top 5? | TOP5 | $558 | 1¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4RMACCGOT-CGOT | Will Chris Gotterup beat Robert MacIntyre in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $551 | 52¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4AHIDRFOX-RFOX | Will Ryan Fox beat Angel Hidalgo in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $540 | 70¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4GWOORHIS-GWOO | Will Gary Woodland beat Ryo Hisatsune in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $535 | 54¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-JVAN | U.S. Open: Will Jackson Van Paris finish top 10? | TOP10 | $524 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-ADUM | U.S. Open: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 10? | TOP10 | $519 | 1¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4JTHOLCAN-JTHO | Will Justin Thomas beat Laurie Canter in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $510 | 68¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4MBREJSPI-JSPI | Will Jordan Spieth beat Michael Brennan in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $509 | 57¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-PCOO | U.S. Open: Will Pierceson Coody finish top 5? | TOP5 | $499 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-DWU | U.S. Open: Will Dylan Wu finish top 10? | TOP10 | $494 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-NECH | U.S. Open: Will Nicolas Echavarria finish top 5? | TOP5 | $484 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-JPAR | U.S. Open: Will John Parry finish top 5? | TOP5 | $468 | 3¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-CSUR | U.S. Open: Will Caleb Surratt finish top 5? | TOP5 | $467 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-AHID | U.S. Open: Will Angel Hidalgo finish top 5? | TOP5 | $446 | 20¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4GWOORHIS-RHIS | Will Ryo Hisatsune beat Gary Woodland in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $406 | 47¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4RHENPUIH-RHEN | Will Russell Henley beat Peter Uihlein in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $370 | 76¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-BJAM | U.S. Open: Will Benjamin James finish top 5? | TOP5 | $353 | 11¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-WMOU | U.S. Open: Will William Mouw finish top 5? | TOP5 | $346 | 2¢ |
| KXPGATOP20-USO26-MFLE | U.S. Open: Will Marek Fleming finish top 20? | TOP20 | $251 | 7¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4MFLEJBRI-MFLE | Will Marek Fleming beat Jacob Bridgeman in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $235 | 21¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4AHIDRFOX-AHID | Will Angel Hidalgo beat Ryan Fox in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $229 | 31¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4XSCHTFLE-XSCH | Will Xander Schauffele beat Tommy Fleetwood in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $209 | 52¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-PCOO | U.S. Open: Will Pierceson Coody finish top 10? | TOP10 | $177 | 8¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4KKITMGRE-MGRE | Will Max Greyserman beat Kurt Kitayama in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $168 | 47¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-ADUM | U.S. Open: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 5? | TOP5 | $156 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-NSHI | U.S. Open: Will Neal Shipley finish top 10? | TOP10 | $154 | 1¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4JTHOLCAN-LCAN | Will Laurie Canter beat Justin Thomas in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $137 | 35¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4APUTHHIG-HHIG | Will Harry Higgs beat Andrew Putnam in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $125 | 39¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4TKIMSTHE-STHE | Will Sahith Theegala beat Tom Kim in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $119 | 54¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4SSTEEGRI-SSTE | Will Sam Stevens beat Emiliano Grillo in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $113 | 55¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4THATBGRI-THAT | Will Tyrrell Hatton beat Ben Griffin in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $112 | 51¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4JNIECAME-JNIE | Will Joaquin Niemann beat Cameron Young in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $112 | 44¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4SBURKMIT-SBUR | Will Sam Burns beat Keith Mitchell in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $112 | 60¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4TKIMSTHE-TKIM | Will Tom Kim beat Sahith Theegala in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $110 | 50¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4NNORWMOU-NNOR | Will Niklas Norgaard Moller beat William Mouw in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $110 | 40¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4SSTEEGRI-EGRI | Will Emiliano Grillo beat Sam Stevens in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $91 | 49¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-NNOR | U.S. Open: Will Niklas Norgaard Moller finish top 5? | TOP5 | $90 | 11¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4CMORMFIT-CMOR | Will Collin Morikawa beat Matt Fitzpatrick in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $75 | 49¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4JKEELABE-JKEE | Will John Keefer beat Ludvig Aberg in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $61 | 38¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4ELEEPROD-ELEE | Will Eric Lee beat Patrick Rodgers in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $59 | 41¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4MRUSJKOI-MRUS | Will Miles Russell beat Jackson Koivun in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $54 | 40¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4DWUJNIC-JNIC | Will James Nicholas beat Dylan Wu in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $51 | 49¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4JNIECAME-CAME | Will Cameron Young beat Joaquin Niemann in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $50 | 62¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-LCAN | U.S. Open: Will Laurie Canter finish top 10? | TOP10 | $50 | 3¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4MFLEJBRI-JBRI | Will Jacob Bridgeman beat Marek Fleming in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $40 | 83¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4MMCNBHAR-BHAR | Will Brian Harman beat Maverick McNealy in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $31 | 47¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4ABHARMCI-ABHA | Will Akshay Bhatia beat Rory McIlroy in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $30 | 41¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4STIBJVAN-STIB | Will Spencer Tibbits beat Jackson Van Paris in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $27 | 36¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-WMOU | U.S. Open: Will William Mouw finish top 10? | TOP10 | $19 | 8¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4XSCHTFLE-TFLE | Will Tommy Fleetwood beat Xander Schauffele in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $18 | 53¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4ADUMNECH-NECH | Will Nicolas Echavarria beat Adrien Dumont De Chassart in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $18 | 54¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-JVAN | U.S. Open: Will Jackson Van Paris finish top 5? | TOP5 | $16 | 1¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4ABHARMCI-RMCI | Will Rory McIlroy beat Akshay Bhatia in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $15 | 61¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4APUTHHIG-APUT | Will Andrew Putnam beat Harry Higgs in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $15 | 66¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-JPAR | U.S. Open: Will John Parry finish top 10? | TOP10 | $10 | 10¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4ADUMNECH-ADUM | Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart beat Nicolas Echavarria in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $9 | 51¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4CMORMFIT-MFIT | Will Matt Fitzpatrick beat Collin Morikawa in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $9 | 56¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4DWUJNIC-DWU | Will Dylan Wu beat James Nicholas in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $9 | 55¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4SBURKMIT-KMIT | Will Keith Mitchell beat Sam Burns in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $8 | 43¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4RCOWAFIT-RCOW | Will Ryder Cowan beat Alex Fitzpatrick in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $6 | 33¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4ZBLAARAI-ZBLA | Will Zac Blair beat Aaron Rai in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $5 | 38¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4PCOODJOH-PCOO | Will Pierceson Coody beat Dustin Johnson in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $4 | 49¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4MMCNBHAR-MMCN | Will Maverick McNealy beat Brian Harman in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $3 | 58¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4RMACCGOT-RMAC | Will Robert MacIntyre beat Chris Gotterup in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $3 | 51¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4CCONKBRA-CCON | Will Corey Conners beat Keegan Bradley in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $2 | 49¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-STIB | U.S. Open: Will Spencer Tibbits finish top 5? | TOP5 | $0 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-ELEE | U.S. Open: Will Eric Lee finish top 5? | TOP5 | $0 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-MFLE | U.S. Open: Will Marek Fleming finish top 5? | TOP5 | $0 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-DWU | U.S. Open: Will Dylan Wu finish top 5? | TOP5 | $0 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-PUIH | U.S. Open: Will Peter Uihlein finish top 5? | TOP5 | $0 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP5-USO26-LCAN | U.S. Open: Will Laurie Canter finish top 5? | TOP5 | $0 | 11¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-ELEE | U.S. Open: Will Eric Lee finish top 10? | TOP10 | $0 | 1¢ |
| KXPGATOP10-USO26-MFLE | U.S. Open: Will Marek Fleming finish top 10? | TOP10 | $0 | 1¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4CCONKBRA-KBRA | Will Keegan Bradley beat Corey Conners in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 56¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4RCOWAFIT-AFIT | Will Alex Fitzpatrick beat Ryder Cowan in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 72¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4MKIMSIM-SIM | Will Sungjae Im beat Michael Kim in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 51¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4MKIMSIM-MKIM | Will Michael Kim beat Sungjae Im in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 54¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4JPOSJPAR-JPOS | Will J.T. Poston beat John Parry in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 59¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4JPOSJPAR-JPAR | Will John Parry beat J.T. Poston in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 42¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4ZBLAARAI-ARAI | Will Aaron Rai beat Zac Blair in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 66¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4PCOODJOH-DJOH | Will Dustin Johnson beat Pierceson Coody in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 57¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4THATBGRI-BGRI | Will Ben Griffin beat Tyrrell Hatton in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 55¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4JROSMMCG-MMCG | Will Max McGreevy beat Justin Rose in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 45¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4JROSMMCG-JROS | Will Justin Rose beat Max McGreevy in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 61¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4NNORWMOU-WMOU | Will William Mouw beat Niklas Norgaard Moller in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 63¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4BCAUBKOH-BKOH | Will Ben Kohles beat Bud Cauley in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 41¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4BCAUBKOH-BCAU | Will Bud Cauley beat Ben Kohles in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 60¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4MBREJSPI-MBRE | Will Michael Brennan beat Jordan Spieth in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 44¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4MRUSJKOI-JKOI | Will Jackson Koivun beat Miles Russell in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 65¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4JKEELABE-LABE | Will Ludvig Aberg beat John Keefer in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 67¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4KKITMGRE-KKIT | Will Kurt Kitayama beat Max Greyserman in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 58¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4STIBJVAN-JVAN | Will Jackson Van Paris beat Spencer Tibbits in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 69¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4BJAMCSUR-CSUR | Will Caleb Surratt beat Benjamin James in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 45¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4BJAMCSUR-BJAM | Will Benjamin James beat Caleb Surratt in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 60¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4NSHIHMAT-NSHI | Will Neal Shipley beat Hideki Matsuyama in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 40¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4NSHIHMAT-HMAT | Will Hideki Matsuyama beat Neal Shipley in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 64¢ |
| KXPGAH2H-USO26R4ELEEPROD-PROD | Will Patrick Rodgers beat Eric Lee in the 4th round of the U.S. Open? | MATCHUP | $0 | 63¢ |
Activity Log
Cameron Smith - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Cameron Smith - Top 20 a 11.4% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 82¢ (82% implied probability). This represents a 7.6-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Jon Rahm - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Jon Rahm - Top 20 a 46.6% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 49¢ (49% implied probability). This represents a 5.4-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Justin Rose - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Justin Rose - Top 20 a 23.0% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 72¢ (72% implied probability). This represents a 6.0-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Justin Thomas - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Justin Thomas - Top 20 a 27.6% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 68¢ (68% implied probability). This represents a 5.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Keegan Bradley - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Keegan Bradley - Top 20 a 17.4% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 80¢ (80% implied probability). This represents a 4.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Patrick Cantlay - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Patrick Cantlay - Top 20 a 31.9% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 64¢ (64% implied probability). This represents a 5.1-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Patrick Reed - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Patrick Reed - Top 20 a 27.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 68¢ (68% implied probability). This represents a 5.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Robert MacIntyre - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Robert MacIntyre - Top 20 a 25.2% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 71¢ (71% implied probability). This represents a 4.8-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Rory McIlroy - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Rory McIlroy - Top 20 a 49.6% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 46¢ (46% implied probability). This represents a 5.4-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Sam Burns - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Sam Burns - Top 20 a 33.4% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 63¢ (63% implied probability). This represents a 4.6-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Scottie Scheffler - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Scottie Scheffler - Top 20 a 66.2% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 29¢ (29% implied probability). This represents a 5.8-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Tommy Fleetwood - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Tommy Fleetwood - Top 20 a 45.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 50¢ (50% implied probability). This represents a 5.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Tyrrell Hatton - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Tyrrell Hatton - Top 20 a 26.6% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 69¢ (69% implied probability). This represents a 5.4-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Wyndham Clark - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Wyndham Clark - Top 20 a 24.7% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 72¢ (72% implied probability). This represents a 4.3-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Xander Schauffele - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Xander Schauffele - Top 20 a 47.0% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 47¢ (47% implied probability). This represents a 7.0-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Chase Kyes - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Chase Kyes - Top 20 a 0.1% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 80¢ (80% implied probability). This represents a 19.9-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Chris Gotterup - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Chris Gotterup - Top 10 a 14.4% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 82¢ (82% implied probability). This represents a 4.6-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($0.19 available).
Cameron Smith - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Cameron Smith - Top 10 a 4.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 92¢ (92% implied probability). This represents a 4.5-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.433, Half-Kelly: 0.216. Dollar amount before cap: $15.15, After cap: $14.72. Placing limit order at 92¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 16.
Jon Rahm - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Jon Rahm - Top 10 a 29.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 66¢ (66% implied probability). This represents a 5.7-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.137, Half-Kelly: 0.069. Dollar amount before cap: $4.80, After cap: $4.62. Placing limit order at 66¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 7.
Justin Rose - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Justin Rose - Top 10 a 11.6% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 86¢ (86% implied probability). This represents a 4.4-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.172, Half-Kelly: 0.086. Dollar amount before cap: $6.03, After cap: $6.02. Placing limit order at 86¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 7.
Patrick Reed - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Patrick Reed - Top 10 a 14.0% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 82¢ (82% implied probability). This represents a 5.0-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.223, Half-Kelly: 0.112. Dollar amount before cap: $7.80, After cap: $7.38. Placing limit order at 82¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 9.
Rory McIlroy - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Rory McIlroy - Top 10 a 32.7% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 63¢ (63% implied probability). This represents a 5.3-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.116, Half-Kelly: 0.058. Dollar amount before cap: $4.05, After cap: $3.78. Placing limit order at 63¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 6.
Sam Burns - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Sam Burns - Top 10 a 18.9% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 78¢ (78% implied probability). This represents a 4.1-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.141, Half-Kelly: 0.071. Dollar amount before cap: $4.95, After cap: $4.68. Placing limit order at 78¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 6.
Scottie Scheffler - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Scottie Scheffler - Top 10 a 49.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 45¢ (45% implied probability). This represents a 6.7-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.104, Half-Kelly: 0.052. Dollar amount before cap: $3.65, After cap: $3.60. Placing limit order at 45¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 8.
Tommy Fleetwood - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Tommy Fleetwood - Top 10 a 28.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 67¢ (67% implied probability). This represents a 5.5-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.137, Half-Kelly: 0.069. Dollar amount before cap: $4.80, After cap: $4.69. Placing limit order at 67¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 7.
Tyrrell Hatton - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Tyrrell Hatton - Top 10 a 13.9% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 83¢ (83% implied probability). This represents a 4.1-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.181, Half-Kelly: 0.090. Dollar amount before cap: $6.34, After cap: $5.81. Placing limit order at 83¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 7.
Jon Rahm - Top 5
DataGolf model gives Jon Rahm - Top 5 a 17.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 79¢ (79% implied probability). This represents a 4.5-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.165, Half-Kelly: 0.083. Dollar amount before cap: $5.77, After cap: $5.53. Placing limit order at 79¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 7.
Rory McIlroy - Top 5
DataGolf model gives Rory McIlroy - Top 5 a 20.2% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 76¢ (76% implied probability). This represents a 4.8-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.158, Half-Kelly: 0.079. Dollar amount before cap: $5.52, After cap: $5.32. Placing limit order at 76¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 7.
Scottie Scheffler - Top 5
DataGolf model gives Scottie Scheffler - Top 5 a 34.4% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 61¢ (61% implied probability). This represents a 5.6-point edge in favor of NO. Edge exceeds the 8-point minimum threshold. Recommended: BUY NO. Kelly fraction: 0.118, Half-Kelly: 0.059. Dollar amount before cap: $4.13, After cap: $3.66. Placing limit order at 61¢ (1¢ below market — maker not taker). Contracts: 6.
Austin Eckroat - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Austin Eckroat - Top 20 a 12.1% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 35¢ (35% implied probability). This represents a 52.9-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Alex Fitzpatrick - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Alex Fitzpatrick - Top 20 a 31.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 43¢ (43% implied probability). This represents a 25.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Aldrich Potgieter - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Aldrich Potgieter - Top 20 a 25.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 44¢ (44% implied probability). This represents a 30.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Andrew Putnam - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Andrew Putnam - Top 20 a 0.2% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 72¢ (72% implied probability). This represents a 27.8-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Alejandro Tosti - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Alejandro Tosti - Top 20 a 4.2% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 57¢ (57% implied probability). This represents a 38.8-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Chandler Blanchet - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Chandler Blanchet - Top 20 a 27.2% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 10¢ (10% implied probability). This represents a 62.8-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Christo Lamprecht - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Christo Lamprecht - Top 20 a 7.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 79¢ (79% implied probability). This represents a 13.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Collin Morikawa - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Collin Morikawa - Top 20 a 14.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 76¢ (76% implied probability). This represents a 9.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Dan Brown - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Dan Brown - Top 20 a 14.7% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 77¢ (77% implied probability). This represents a 8.3-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Doug Ghim - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Doug Ghim - Top 20 a 39.4% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 20¢ (20% implied probability). This represents a 40.6-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Johnny Keefer - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Johnny Keefer - Top 20 a 21.9% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 68¢ (68% implied probability). This represents a 10.1-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Jimmy Stanger - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Jimmy Stanger - Top 20 a 21.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 68¢ (68% implied probability). This represents a 10.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Jesper Svensson - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Jesper Svensson - Top 20 a 25.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 57¢ (57% implied probability). This represents a 17.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Jhonattan Vegas - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Jhonattan Vegas - Top 20 a 20.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 39¢ (39% implied probability). This represents a 40.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Kristoffer Reitan - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Kristoffer Reitan - Top 20 a 34.2% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 26¢ (26% implied probability). This represents a 39.8-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Matthew Anderson - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Matthew Anderson - Top 20 a 7.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 21¢ (21% implied probability). This represents a 71.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Michael Brennan - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Michael Brennan - Top 20 a 9.7% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 83¢ (83% implied probability). This represents a 7.3-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Mackenzie Hughes - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Mackenzie Hughes - Top 20 a 9.7% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 10¢ (10% implied probability). This represents a 80.3-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Neal Shipley - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Neal Shipley - Top 20 a 19.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 44¢ (44% implied probability). This represents a 36.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Padraig Harrington - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Padraig Harrington - Top 20 a 0.2% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 99¢ (99% implied probability). This represents a 8.8-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Pontus Nyholm - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Pontus Nyholm - Top 20 a 0.2% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 86¢ (86% implied probability). This represents a 13.8-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Sudarshan Yellamaraju - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Sudarshan Yellamaraju - Top 20 a 13.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 78¢ (78% implied probability). This represents a 8.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Already hold a position in this market.
Thorbjorn Olesen - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Thorbjorn Olesen - Top 20 a 3.6% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 92¢ (92% implied probability). This represents a 4.4-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Adam Schenk - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Adam Schenk - Top 10 a 3.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 62¢ (62% implied probability). This represents a 34.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Collin Morikawa - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Collin Morikawa - Top 10 a 6.6% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 87¢ (87% implied probability). This represents a 6.4-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Doug Ghim - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Doug Ghim - Top 10 a 22.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 37¢ (37% implied probability). This represents a 40.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Harry Hall - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Harry Hall - Top 10 a 19.4% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 21¢ (21% implied probability). This represents a 59.6-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Justin Rose - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Justin Rose - Top 10 a 7.7% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 88¢ (88% implied probability). This represents a 4.3-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Neal Shipley - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Neal Shipley - Top 10 a 9.2% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 50¢ (50% implied probability). This represents a 40.8-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Ryan Fox - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Ryan Fox - Top 10 a 28.6% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 31¢ (31% implied probability). This represents a 40.4-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Rico Hoey - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Rico Hoey - Top 10 a 12.1% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 47¢ (47% implied probability). This represents a 40.9-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Seamus Power - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Seamus Power - Top 10 a 0.8% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 93¢ (93% implied probability). This represents a 6.2-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($2.31 available).
Sudarshan Yellamaraju - Top 10
Order placed at 90¢ but did not fill within 60s. Order canceled. Market may have moved.
Trace Crowe - Top 10
DataGolf model gives Trace Crowe - Top 10 a 11.0% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 21¢ (21% implied probability). This represents a 68.0-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($7.71 available).
Aldrich Potgieter - Top 5
DataGolf model gives Aldrich Potgieter - Top 5 a 6.9% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 53¢ (53% implied probability). This represents a 40.1-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($7.71 available).
Brooks Koepka - Top 5
DataGolf model gives Brooks Koepka - Top 5 a 16.9% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 43¢ (43% implied probability). This represents a 40.1-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($7.71 available).
Jhonattan Vegas - Top 5
DataGolf model gives Jhonattan Vegas - Top 5 a 4.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 62¢ (62% implied probability). This represents a 33.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($7.71 available).
Rico Hoey - Top 5
DataGolf model gives Rico Hoey - Top 5 a 5.7% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 54¢ (54% implied probability). This represents a 40.3-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($7.71 available).
Corey Conners - Make Cut
Order placed at 54¢ but did not fill within 60s. Order canceled. Market may have moved.
Sam Burns - Make Cut
Order placed at 89¢ but did not fill within 60s. Order canceled. Market may have moved.
Taylor Pendrith - Make Cut
Order placed at 10¢ but did not fill within 60s. Order canceled. Market may have moved.
Jackson Suber - Top 20
Holding Jackson Suber - Top 20. Current edge: 53.0pts. P&L: -36.9%. Would enter today: True.
Aaron Rai - Top 20
Holding Aaron Rai - Top 20. Current edge: 29.0pts. P&L: -55.4%. Would enter today: True.
Tommy Fleetwood - Top 10
Holding Tommy Fleetwood - Top 10. Current edge: 37.0pts. P&L: -41.3%. Would enter today: True.
Tony Finau - Top 10
Holding Tony Finau - Top 10. Current edge: 32.0pts. P&L: -63.2%. Would enter today: True.
Zach Bauchou - Top 20
Holding Zach Bauchou - Top 20. Current edge: 16.0pts. P&L: -81.2%. Would enter today: True.
Sudarshan Yellamaraju - Top 20
Holding Sudarshan Yellamaraju - Top 20. Current edge: 22.0pts. P&L: -72.5%. Would enter today: True.
Austin Eckroat - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Austin Eckroat - Top 20 a 12.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 48¢ (48% implied probability). This represents a 39.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Alex Fitzpatrick - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Alex Fitzpatrick - Top 20 a 24.4% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 43¢ (43% implied probability). This represents a 32.6-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Aldrich Potgieter - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Aldrich Potgieter - Top 20 a 25.9% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 44¢ (44% implied probability). This represents a 30.1-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Andrew Putnam - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Andrew Putnam - Top 20 a 1.6% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 72¢ (72% implied probability). This represents a 26.4-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Alejandro Tosti - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Alejandro Tosti - Top 20 a 3.8% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 58¢ (58% implied probability). This represents a 38.2-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Chandler Blanchet - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Chandler Blanchet - Top 20 a 19.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 22¢ (22% implied probability). This represents a 58.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Christo Lamprecht - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Christo Lamprecht - Top 20 a 3.9% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 82¢ (82% implied probability). This represents a 14.1-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Collin Morikawa - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Collin Morikawa - Top 20 a 14.7% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 76¢ (76% implied probability). This represents a 9.3-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Dan Brown - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Dan Brown - Top 20 a 14.6% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 77¢ (77% implied probability). This represents a 8.4-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Doug Ghim - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Doug Ghim - Top 20 a 34.0% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 25¢ (25% implied probability). This represents a 41.0-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Johnny Keefer - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Johnny Keefer - Top 20 a 29.0% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 60¢ (60% implied probability). This represents a 11.0-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Jimmy Stanger - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Jimmy Stanger - Top 20 a 21.5% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 68¢ (68% implied probability). This represents a 10.5-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Jackson Suber - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Jackson Suber - Top 20 a 25.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 47¢ (47% implied probability). This represents a 27.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Already hold a position in this market.
Jesper Svensson - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Jesper Svensson - Top 20 a 22.1% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 57¢ (57% implied probability). This represents a 20.9-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Jhonattan Vegas - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Jhonattan Vegas - Top 20 a 14.7% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 44¢ (44% implied probability). This represents a 41.3-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Kristoffer Reitan - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Kristoffer Reitan - Top 20 a 44.4% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 18¢ (18% implied probability). This represents a 37.6-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Matthew Anderson - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Matthew Anderson - Top 20 a 6.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 54¢ (54% implied probability). This represents a 39.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Michael Brennan - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Michael Brennan - Top 20 a 9.8% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 83¢ (83% implied probability). This represents a 7.2-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Mackenzie Hughes - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Mackenzie Hughes - Top 20 a 10.0% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 49¢ (49% implied probability). This represents a 41.0-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Neal Shipley - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Neal Shipley - Top 20 a 16.9% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 22¢ (22% implied probability). This represents a 61.1-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Padraig Harrington - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Padraig Harrington - Top 20 a 0.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 99¢ (99% implied probability). This represents a 8.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Pontus Nyholm - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Pontus Nyholm - Top 20 a 0.1% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 86¢ (86% implied probability). This represents a 13.9-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Sudarshan Yellamaraju - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Sudarshan Yellamaraju - Top 20 a 13.3% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 78¢ (78% implied probability). This represents a 8.7-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Already hold a position in this market.
Thorbjorn Olesen - Top 20
DataGolf model gives Thorbjorn Olesen - Top 20 a 3.8% probability (winning the matchup). Kalshi is pricing the NO side at 92¢ (92% implied probability). This represents a 4.2-point edge in favor of NO. SKIPPED: Insufficient capital ($1.29 available).
Product Design Choice Log
Changelog
Order fill verification — live mode now confirms fills before recording positions
Scheduler missing Round 4 — added Sunday 8 PM ET run
Renamed 'Decision Log' → 'Product Design Choice Log'
UI readability pass — neutral gray cards, soft white body text
Last Scan Summary component
About MATES welcome banner
DataGolf matchup endpoint returns string mid-tournament, causing character-iteration crash
Dynamic market discovery — no longer limited to known series tickers
Full dashboard visual redesign with side navigation
Changelog and Decision Log added to dashboard
Portfolio re-evaluation crash — missing function
Renamed APMTS → MATES
Expanded to H2H matchup markets (KXPGAH2H series)
DataGolf matchup endpoint returning 400 — missing parameter
Market prices were being fetched from orderbook (returned empty)
Kelly Criterion was receiving wrong probability for NO bets
Critical: Edge calculation was massively wrong for NO bets
DataGolf returned 0 players — wrong response key
Initial build — full pipeline from scratch
Feature Backlog
Events: historical spike scanner
Stage 1 step 1 — z-score + volume spike detector over events_desk/data/archive/ candles. Output: dataset of past spikes.
Historical backtest harness
Backtest the DG-vs-Kalshi edge across past tournaments instead of waiting ~20 live events for P&L to converge. Feasibility CONFIRMED 2026-06-21: Kalshi candlestick endpoint (/series/{s}/markets/{ticker}/candlesticks) returns historical yes_ask/yes_bid/OHLC for SETTLED markets, so pre-tournament prices are reconstructable from the first candle. DataGolf sells historical pre-tournament predictions via their data product. Outcomes we already have (settlements). Two phases: (1) CHEAP/now — test DataGolf calibration alone (DG historical probs + actual outcomes, no Kalshi needed): when DG says 70%, does it happen ~70%? Validates our signal. (2) FULL — DG probs + Kalshi candlestick prices + outcomes: run edge-detection + Kelly sizing on each past event, compute hypothetical ROI / calibration / vs-expected. CRITICAL caveat: fillability — backtest on the ASK (or model maker fills from bid/ask spread) so we do not overstate returns; our 1c-below-ask maker orders would not always fill. Also handle ticker enumeration for past events and selection bias. Pairs with the live edge-observation module (forward-looking ground truth with real fills).
Edge observation / data collection module
A scan-only mode + new table (edge_observations) that records EVERY edge the scanner detects on each run — including off-cycle, outside trading windows, and mid-round — even when we place no wagers. Per observation capture: timestamp, event, run_type (pre/live), DataGolf model freshness (source, last_update, age_hours), player, market_type, side, DG prob, Kalshi YES prob, our-side price, edge_pts, would-be contracts/size, tradeable flag, and whether it was actually traded (+ skip reason). Purpose: build a research dataset to (1) study how edges evolve across a tournament, (2) backtest whether detected-but-untraded edges would have been BOTH profitable and fillable, (3) calibrate DG-vs-Kalshi (does a detected edge actually predict the outcome?), and (4) make data-driven trading-window / false-edge decisions. Motivation: a 2026-06-20 off-cycle Round-3 dry run found 89 edges (vs 37 pre-tournament), with sizes ballooning to +40 to +66pt — almost certainly a mix of stale/illiquid live Kalshi prices and unfillable thin markets, i.e. classic in-round false edges. We are currently throwing that signal away. Runs as a scheduled scan-only job (e.g. hourly during tournaments), independent of trading. Pairs with the decouple-cleanup-from-trading item.
Tournament Performance scoreboard (cross-event track record)
New component above Settled Positions: one row per tournament with bets, W-L, staked, net P&L, ROI, avg edge at entry, expected P&L (sum of EV at entry), and Actual minus Expected (the luck-vs-skill / model-calibration signal, our analog of closing-line value). Plus an all-time total row. Hero visual: cumulative P&L equity curve (Chart.js, from portfolio_history) — overlaps with the existing Portfolio-value-chart backlog item; build them together. Secondary visual: per-tournament net P&L bars. Foundation now exists: settled_positions are event-tagged via ticker. Caveat: only ~3 tournaments (early ones buggy) so it is for building the measurement habit, not yet for conclusions.
Portfolio value over time chart
Line chart (Chart.js) of total account value over time, reading the portfolio_history snapshots already written each sync. X-axis time, Y-axis dollars. Foundation for the deposits-vs-gains view below.
Decouple cleanup from trading (separate run modes)
Today a bot run does everything in one shot: settle/cleanup positions AND place wagers. When we pause the scheduler to stop trading, we also stop cleanup — which is why the RBC Canadian Open positions sat "open" for a week after they settled on Kalshi. Split the run into independent operations: (1) a CLEANUP/SYNC mode that reconciles settled positions, backfills missing ones, and records portfolio snapshots — safe to run on any cadence (hourly/daily) regardless of trading state; and (2) a TRADING mode for the unsafe operation of placing wagers, gated by the trading window + DataGolf freshness checks. Likely two Cloud Run Jobs on two Cloud Scheduler triggers: cleanup always-on, trading gated.
Events Track B: generalist LLM logic-check scanner
Design + build LLM sweep of all open event markets for resolution misreads / weak-case mispricings (Powell + Musk-v-OpenAI pattern). Forward-only validation via paper-tracking.
Events: edge report + go/no-go gate
Stage 1 step 3 — % of spikes that revert by sub-category, fills at post-spike ask. Decides Stage 2.
Events: GDELT news matching + spike labeling
Stage 1 step 2 — pull GDELT news around each spike, classify false/none/real, label reversion + resolution.
Revisit Kelly fraction (half -> quarter) + make it a config knob
Currently half-Kelly. Quarter-Kelly roughly halves portfolio volatility for a modest EV reduction — the single cleanest variance cut, and it directly delivers the lower-but-steadier return profile Michael wants. Given the book is correlated and negatively skewed, half-Kelly may be too aggressive. Action: expose kelly_fraction as an env-config knob (kelly_sizer.kelly_size already accepts a kelly_fraction param), then tune empirically once variance data exists. Decision deferred until performance tracking is built.
Variance reduction & hedging strategy (revisit in depth)
Umbrella item from the 2026-06-18 hedging discussion. Core insight: for a compounding bankroll, lower variance at the same average return compounds to MORE money (volatility drag ~= variance/2) — a steady 2.5%/wk can beat a volatile 5%/wk. The MATES NO-favorite book is correlated (chalk-week risk: favorites all play well and many NO bets lose together) and negatively skewed (many small wins, rare large losses), so variance management has real value. Levers identified: fractional Kelly, time + cross-sectional diversification, correlation/exposure caps, nested-market spreads, small scenario hedges, and edging toward market-making. GATED ON PERFORMANCE HISTORY — only 2 (buggy) tournaments so far; revisit with Michael once real per-week P&L tracking exists.
Size positions off actual Kalshi cash balance
Today the bot sizes against the TOTAL_BUDGET config number, not the real Kalshi account balance. After wins/losses these drift apart. Read live balance from kalshi_client.get_balance() and size against actual available cash.
Hedging via nested finish-market spreads (e.g. 11-20 band)
Kalshi golf markets nest: win < top5 < top10 < top20 < make-cut. Combining legs builds defined-risk, lower-variance positions. Example: YES top-20 + NO top-10 on one player pays $2 if he finishes 11-20 and $1 otherwise — a bounded bet with a floor, good for expressing a precise band view with capped variance. Why it is NOT a silver bullet: each leg pays spread+fees and needs its own fill (execution risk is already our binding constraint); it caps upside as much as downside (sacrifices the fat right tail that drives our +EV); it ties up more capital per unit of edge under the 70 percent deploy cap; it is only +EV if both legs are genuinely mispriced; and it does NOT address portfolio-level chalk-week correlation. More viable as bankroll grows ($1k+) when fees-as-percent shrink and the 5-contract granularity binds less. Prototype only after performance tracking is in place.
Multi-sport expansion (NFL and beyond)
Architecture already supports other sports via TOURNAMENT_KEYWORDS / KALSHI_SERIES. Generalize naming and market-type mapping beyond PGA to add NFL or other Kalshi markets.
Deposits vs gains in portfolio chart
Extend the portfolio chart to distinguish cash deposited into Kalshi from gains earned on wagers, using the cumulative_deposits column already in portfolio_history.
Settled positions live AJAX refresh
The settled-positions table only updates on full page load, not the 60s AJAX loop. Wire it into /api/dashboard like open positions. Cosmetic — settled data changes only when a tournament resolves.
NO-price ceiling option
Optional, event-scoped cap to skip NO bets above a price threshold (e.g. 90 cents) where capital-at-risk dwarfs max payout. Same auto-expiring pattern as market-type exclusions. Decision pending: these high-certainty bets may be exactly the favorite-longshot edge we want.
Portfolio: hourly account-value recorder + backfill research
Scheduled job snapshotting Kalshi balance + position market value into portfolio_history. Research: can old account value be reconstructed from fills/settlements (retention appears longer for account data — settlements go back to March)?
Portfolio: account-level summary page (new home)
Best-in-class portfolio view of ENTIRE Kalshi account (not just $100 MATES budget): total value over time w/ 1D/1W/1M/3M/YTD/MAX ranges, day change, holdings. MATES becomes platform brand; Golf Desk + Events Desk become sub-pages.
Research brief: news over/underreaction in markets
Readable summary w/ sources: documented over/underreaction to news in prediction markets + analogous finance literature (overreaction, post-earnings drift, favorite-longshot bias, in-play betting).
Schedule events-desk archiver (recurring)
events_desk/archiver.py must run weekly minimum (Kalshi purges settled markets ~2-3mo). Recommended: GCP Cloud Run job + Cloud Scheduler like mates-bot. First manual harvest ran 07/02/26.
Settled-position tracking and Kalshi sync
Standalone kalshi_sync.py reconciles DB positions against live Kalshi: settles resolved markets (payout/P&L/outcome to settled_positions), backfills positions present on Kalshi but missing from the DB, and records portfolio snapshots.
UI: full aesthetic redesign — Anthropic/Fable palette
Replace dark terminal theme across all pages: warm parchment background, ink text, muted earth accents (terracotta/clay), serif display headings, editorial spacing. Reference: Fable 5 release art.
Golf desk: purge concluded-tournament UI clutter
Remove U.S. Open (Shinnecock) / stale tournament info from golf page; clean up stale settled positions display. No active tournament right now.
DataGolf live in-round data + freshness gate
Scanner prefers DataGolf in-play predictions mid-tournament; trading is gated on model freshness (under 4h old, event-name match, >=50 players) so we never trade a stale or wrong-event model.
Upon-entry vs current economics clusters
Split position economics into AT ENTRY (frozen when the bot traded) and CURRENT (live DataGolf + live Kalshi price) column groups, so you can see how each position has moved since entry.
DG%, Kalshi%, and Edge columns in Open Positions
Show DataGolf probability, Kalshi implied probability, and the edge (the gap that triggered entry) directly in the open positions table.
Player-grouped exposure view
Toggle in Open Positions to switch from one-row-per-wager to one-row-per-player: total cost, position count, markets, EV at entry and EV current per golfer. Surfaces concentration the wager view hides (e.g. total Scheffler exposure across his Top-5/Top-10 markets).
Event-scoped market-type exclusions
Config-driven, auto-expiring exclusions (e.g. cut@U.S. Open) so a market type can be excluded for one event without silently persisting into future tournaments. Surfaced on the dashboard.
Technical Design
Previous State — Laptop MVP
MATES began as a headless Python application running on a personal laptop — kicked off manually or via local cron. Each run fetched live data from two external APIs, identified mispricings with a statistical edge model, sized positions with the Kelly Criterion, and placed limit orders on Kalshi. A separate Flask web server read the JSON files those runs produced and rendered them. There was no database — all state lived in flat JSON files on disk — and the dashboard was only reachable on the local network while the laptop was powered on. This is the architecture we have since migrated away from; it is shown here for reference.
Background Context
Prediction markets are priced by the betting public, and the public systematically overweights name recognition. High-profile players trade at prices implying higher probabilities than models support — creating persistent NO-side value on the biggest names. Meanwhile, strong statistical performers with lower public profiles are routinely underpriced. MATES captures both sides of that bias automatically. The structural edge exists because DataGolf's strokes-gained model is built from years of shot-level tour data and is systematically more calibrated than aggregate crowd opinion — especially in a relatively illiquid market like Kalshi's golf section. Position sizes use half-Kelly: mathematically optimal for long-run bankroll growth while cutting variance roughly in half compared to full Kelly. The $25 per-trade cap prevents any single bet from dominating the portfolio regardless of what Kelly recommends.
Dependencies
| Package | Language | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Flask + Jinja2 | Python | Web server and HTML template rendering for this dashboard |
| requests | Python | HTTP client for DataGolf and Kalshi API calls |
| cryptography | Python | RSA-PSS signing for Kalshi authentication (required by their API) |
| python-dotenv | Python | Loads config from .env file (API keys, budget, tournament settings) |
| rapidfuzz | Python | Fuzzy string matching to align player names between DataGolf and Kalshi |
| Vanilla JS | JavaScript | Live clock, sidebar nav highlighting, smooth page reload, collapsible tables |
| Plain HTML/CSS | HTML | No component library — all styling is hand-written in this file |
Data files (all in data/)
| File | Format | Contents |
|---|---|---|
| positions.json | JSON | All currently open positions — the source of truth for the portfolio |
| last_scan.json | JSON | Results of the most recent bot run: edges found, top opportunities, market counts |
| reasoning_log.json | JSON | Every trade/skip decision with full probability data and reasoning text |
| decision_log.json | JSON | Human-authored product design choices (shown in the Design Choices section) |
| changelog.json | JSON | Versioned record of code and feature changes |
Current State — Google Cloud Platform
MATES now runs entirely on Google Cloud Platform (project mates-trading).
The bot is fully autonomous — a Cloud Scheduler trigger fires a Cloud Run Job
on a cron interval, with no machine to keep on — and the dashboard is a live Cloud Run
service reachable from any device, scaling to zero when idle. All state lives in
Cloud SQL (PostgreSQL 15); API keys and DB credentials are injected from
Secret Manager; container images for both the bot and dashboard are stored in
Artifact Registry. Trading is gated to a defined evening window plus a DataGolf
model-freshness check, and settled positions are reconciled automatically on every run.
GCP Components
| Service | Replaces | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Cloud Run | Flask on localhost:5000 | Hosts the dashboard container, always-on, HTTPS automatic, globally accessible |
| Cloud Run Jobs | Manual python main.py |
Runs the trading bot on a schedule without a persistent VM |
| Cloud Scheduler | Laptop cron / manual runs | Triggers Cloud Run Jobs on configurable intervals (e.g. every 30 min during tournaments) |
| Cloud SQL (PostgreSQL) | data/ JSON files |
Persistent relational database for positions, trades, scan history |
| Secret Manager | .env file |
Stores Kalshi private key, DataGolf API key, DB credentials securely |
| Artifact Registry | Local Python environment | Stores versioned Docker images for both the dashboard and bot containers |